Tuesday, November 23, 2004

Observations from TECD- All is well in Tech land?

TECD had fairly positive commentary on overall tech spending especially in North America from SMBs. Question remains if the strength continues as oil prices move back up, dollar continues to devalue and if interest rates pick up.

TECD
sales grew 8.6% Y/Y and 4.2% sequentially, with steady growth in most markets especially in the SMB market in North America. Company also raised guidance for next quarter. Growth in the Americas was little softer than in Europe as this was a seasonally strong quarter for Europe. The end of fiscal year for US Government helped in Septembe. Strength from Government continued into October, which should benefit most tech companies who do not necessarily look for the continued strength from US Government in October. Gross margins were down a bit due to pricing pressure. Price competition is still intense in Europe as well as in America. Inventory balance grew a little but mgmt didn’t seem concerned about it. TECD seeing strength in: mobile computing (INTC, HPQ, maybe RIMM), IP telephony (AV, CSCO) is very strong, security appliances (CHKP, JNPR, SNWL, WGRD) storage (QLGC, NTAP), software licensing, and Plasma monitors(GNSS, PXLW). There was some weakness in desktop computers which is little strange given what DELL had said. But might point to that the SMB market is spending on notebooks where as larger corporations are working on upgrading desktops? But TECD did mention that they are seeing corporations upgrading both notebooks and desktops in Europe due to favorable exchange rate. Another example of why the Bush administration likes to keep its hands off of the falling dollar.

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